Today / Belarus - Premier League / Naftan vs Slavia Mozyr

Naftan vs Slavia Mozyr Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Naftan

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Slavia Mozyr

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.5%0-119.8%0-28.3%0-32.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.3%1-112.0%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-04.3%2-13.6%2-21.5%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.9%3-10.7%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.0% 25.6% 3.90 +0.8%

Draw 39.4% 32.3% 3.10 +22.1%

Away win 34.6% 54.1% 1.85 -36.0%

Over 2.5 25.8% 44.8% 2.23 -25.5%

Over 3.5 5.9% 25.6% 3.90 -46.2%

BTTS 44.6% 51.3% 1.95 -13.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -16.9%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.6%

D 39% / xG 0.6-0.8 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.5%

#2 0–1✓ 19.8%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 1–0 14.3%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Naftan0.6

Slavia Mozyr0.8

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NAFTAN · PPG 0.75

SLAVIA MOZYR · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Naftan (H) 26.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +0.8%

Draw 39.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +22.1%

Slavia Mozyr (A) 34.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -36.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Naftan face Slavia Mozyr in Belarus - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Naftan a 26% chance, the draw 39% and Slavia Mozyr 35%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Naftan and 0.8 for Slavia Mozyr (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Naftan are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.33 for Slavia Mozyr. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Naftan vs Slavia Mozyr Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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