Today / USV Hercules vs Excelsior 31

USV Hercules vs Excelsior 31 Prediction

Group A - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:30

USV Hercules

PPG 1.80 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Excelsior 31

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.9%0-24.1%0-32.3%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.5%1-19.1%1-27.6%1-34.2%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.1%2-18.5%2-27.1%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.2%3-15.3%3-24.4%3-32.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.7%4+-23.1%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.0% — — —

Draw 22.1% — — —

Away win 34.9% — — —

Over 2.5 68.3% — — —

Over 3.5 46.8% — — —

BTTS 68.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob68.4%

H 43% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

USV Hercules1.9

Excelsior 311.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.8%

Form & verdict PPG

USV HERCULES · PPG 1.80

EXCELSIOR 31 · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

USV Hercules (H) 43.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Excelsior 31 (A) 34.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

USV Hercules face Excelsior 31 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives USV Hercules a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Excelsior 31 35%, so USV Hercules are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for USV Hercules and 1.7 for Excelsior 31 (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, USV Hercules are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.14 for Excelsior 31. This match finished 3-2.

USV Hercules vs Excelsior 31 Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions