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Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:30

Kolos Kovalivka

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Obolon

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWL

// Model verdict

Home 48% chance

Model probability 51.4% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-18.8%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.7%1-111.8%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.5%2-17.9%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.6%3-13.5%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 46.5% 2.15 +10.5%

Draw 27.2% 33.9% 2.95 -11.9%

Away win 21.4% 29.9% 3.35 -17.0%

Over 2.5 35.7% 42.0% 2.38 -15.0%

Over 3.5 13.7% 22.2% 4.50 -23.0%

BTTS 46.8% 51.3% 1.95 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.8%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.7%

#2 0–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.5%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kolos Kovalivka1.3

Obolon0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KOLOS KOVALIVKA · PPG 1.71

OBOLON · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Kolos Kovalivka (H) 51.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +10.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -11.9%

Obolon (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kolos Kovalivka face Obolon in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Obolon 21%, so Kolos Kovalivka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kolos Kovalivka and 0.6 for Obolon (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.00 for Obolon. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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