Today / Heerenveen vs Ajax Amsterdam

Heerenveen vs Ajax Amsterdam Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Heerenveen

PPG 1.81 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ajax Amsterdam

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.2%0-24.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.9%1 1-05.0%1-19.1%1-28.1%1-34.9%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.1%2-34.3%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.6%3-14.6%3-24.2%3-32.5%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.0%4+-22.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.4% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 37.7% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 47.3% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.5%

A 38% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heerenveen1.7

Ajax Amsterdam1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HEERENVEEN · PPG 1.81

AJAX AMSTERDAM · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.81) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Heerenveen (H) 37.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ajax Amsterdam (A) 37.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Heerenveen face Ajax Amsterdam on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heerenveen a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Ajax Amsterdam 38%, so Ajax Amsterdam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Heerenveen and 1.8 for Ajax Amsterdam (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heerenveen are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.50 for Ajax Amsterdam. This match finished 0-0.

Heerenveen vs Ajax Amsterdam Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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