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Bollstanas vs Falu BS Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 12:00

Bollstanas

PPG 0.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Falu BS

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

Away 57% chance

Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+16.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-18.3%0-29.8%0-37.7%0-4+7.9%1 1-03.5%1-18.2%1-29.7%1-37.6%1-4+7.8%2 2-01.7%2-14.1%2-24.8%2-33.7%2-4+3.8%3 3-00.6%3-11.3%3-21.6%3-31.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.0% 28.6% 3.50 -30.6%

Draw 22.6% 26.7% 3.75 -9.2%

Away win 63.4% 54.6% 1.83 +16.0%

Over 2.5 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Over 3.5 42.8% 43.5% 2.30 -1.6%

BTTS 54.7% 69.0% 1.45 -20.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -9.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob54.7%

A 63% / xG 1.0-2.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.8%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 0–3 7.7%

#5 1–3 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bollstanas1.0

Falu BS2.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLLSTANAS · PPG 0.33

FALU BS · PPG 2.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

57%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Bollstanas (H) 14.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -30.6%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.2%

Falu BS (A) 63.4%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bollstanas face Falu BS in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bollstanas a 14% chance, the draw 23% and Falu BS 63%, so Falu BS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Bollstanas and 2.4 for Falu BS (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bollstanas are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 2.33 for Falu BS. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Bollstanas vs Falu BS Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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