Today / PSM vs Persib

PSM vs Persib Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

PSM

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Persib

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.81) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-113.9%0-210.8%0-35.6%0-4+3.1%1 1-07.7%1-111.9%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.3%2-15.1%2-24.0%2-32.1%2-4+1.1%3 3-00.9%3-11.5%3-21.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% — — —

Draw 27.6% — — —

Away win 47.5% — — —

Over 2.5 47.6% — — —

Over 3.5 22.4% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob51.6%

A 48% / xG 0.9-1.6 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 0–1 13.9%

#3 0–2 10.8%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 1–2✓ 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSM0.9

Persib1.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PSM · PPG 1.13

PERSIB · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.81) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

PSM (H) 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Persib (A) 47.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

PSM face Persib on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSM a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Persib 48%, so Persib are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for PSM and 1.6 for Persib (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSM are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.81 for Persib. This match finished 1-2.

PSM vs Persib Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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