Today / Mgladbach W vs Andernach W

Mgladbach W vs Andernach W Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Mgladbach W
PPG 1.42 · HOME
4 – 5
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Andernach W
PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.6%0-24.4%0-32.9%0-4+2.2%1 1-04.2%1-18.3%1-28.0%1-35.2%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.8%2-17.5%2-27.2%2-34.7%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.3%3-14.5%3-24.4%3-32.8%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.0%4+-23.0%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.5%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 35.7%
Draw 23.8%
Away win 40.5%
Over 2.5 63.9%
Over 3.5 51.6%
BTTS 63.0%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 4-5
xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.0%

A 40% / xG 1.8-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%
#2 1–2 8.0%
#3 2–1 7.5%
#4 2–2 7.2%
#5 1–3 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mgladbach W1.8
Andernach W1.9

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MGLADBACH W · PPG 1.42

ANDERNACH W · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.42), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Mgladbach W (H) 35.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Andernach W (A) 40.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mgladbach W face Andernach W on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mgladbach W a 36% chance, the draw 24% and Andernach W 41%, so Andernach W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Mgladbach W and 1.9 for Andernach W (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mgladbach W are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.17 for Andernach W. This match finished 4-5.

PredictVantage

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