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Paide vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 11:30

Paide

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Levadia

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-19.8%0-28.8%0-35.3%0-4+3.7%1 1-06.0%1-110.8%1-29.8%1-35.9%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.3%2-16.0%2-25.4%2-33.3%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.2%3-12.2%3-22.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.8% 25.0% 4.00 +4.3%

Draw 26.0% 27.0% 3.70 -2.3%

Away win 47.1% 57.8% 1.73 -18.5%

Over 2.5 59.1% 58.8% 1.70 +0.5%

Over 3.5 33.5% 36.4% 2.75 -7.9%

BTTS 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.6%

A 47% / xG 1.1-1.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paide1.1

Levadia1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PAIDE · PPG 1.80

LEVADIA · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Paide (H) 26.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +4.3%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.3%

Levadia (A) 47.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paide face Levadia in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paide a 27% chance, the draw 26% and Levadia 47%, so Levadia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Paide and 1.8 for Levadia (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paide are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.50 for Levadia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 1-3.

Paide vs Levadia Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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