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Korsnas IF vs Ängby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 11:00

Korsnas IF

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ängby

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-15.3%0-26.9%0-35.9%0-4+7.1%1 1-02.7%1-16.9%1-28.9%1-37.7%1-4+9.2%2 2-01.7%2-14.5%2-25.8%2-35.0%2-4+6.0%3 3-00.8%3-11.9%3-22.5%3-32.2%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 17.2% 2.25 -36.8%

Draw 22.2% 3.70 -10.7%

Away win 60.5% 2.60 +57.3%

Over 2.5 63.9% 1.40 -10.5%

Over 3.5 54.3% 1.95 +5.9%

BTTS 60.4% 1.33 -19.7%

Win probability 1X2

Korsnas IF (H) 17.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -36.8%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.7%

Ängby (A) 60.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +57.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob60.4%

A 60% / xG 1.3-2.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.9%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 1–3 7.7%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 0–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Korsnas IF1.3

Ängby2.6

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 54.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KORSNAS IF · PPG 0.75

ÄNGBY · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Match Preview & Prediction

Korsnas IF face Ängby in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Korsnas IF a 17% chance, the draw 22% and Ängby 61%, so Ängby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Korsnas IF and 2.6 for Ängby (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Korsnas IF are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Ängby. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +57.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Korsnas IF vs Ängby Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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