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Enskede vs Helges Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 11:00

Enskede

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Helges

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-12.4%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.6%1-16.1%1-21.6%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.9%2-17.9%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.8%3-16.7%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-015.1%4+-18.0%4+-22.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% 71.4% 1.40 -4.7%

Draw 22.7% 22.2% 4.50 +1.3%

Away win 9.2% 17.4% 5.75 -28.3%

Over 2.5 60.7% 69.4% 1.44 -12.6%

Over 3.5 37.3% 47.6% 2.10 -21.7%

BTTS 48.6% 64.5% 1.55 -24.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -22.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.6%

H 68% / xG 2.6-0.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.9%

#2 3–0 12.8%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 4–0 8.2%

#5 2–1✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Enskede2.6

Helges0.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ENSKEDE · PPG 2.33

HELGES · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Enskede (H) 68.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -4.7%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +1.3%

Helges (A) 9.2%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -28.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Enskede face Helges in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Enskede a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Helges 9%, so Enskede are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Enskede and 0.5 for Helges (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Enskede are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.67 for Helges. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Enskede vs Helges Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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