Today / Hollenbach vs TSV Essingen

Hollenbach vs TSV Essingen Prediction

Baden-Württemberg - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:30

Hollenbach

PPG 1.15 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

TSV Essingen

PPG 1.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.8%0-26.6%0-35.0%0-4+4.9%1 1-03.5%1-18.1%1-29.2%1-37.0%1-4+6.8%2 2-02.5%2-15.6%2-26.4%2-34.9%2-4+4.7%3 3-01.2%3-12.6%3-23.0%3-32.3%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.3%4+-21.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% — — —

Draw 19.8% — — —

Away win 57.3% — — —

Over 2.5 71.1% — — —

Over 3.5 50.2% — — —

BTTS 67.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob67.6%

A 57% / xG 1.4-2.3 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.2%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 1–3 7.0%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hollenbach1.4

TSV Essingen2.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.1% · O3.5 PROB 50.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HOLLENBACH · PPG 1.15

TSV ESSINGEN · PPG 1.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.85) vs Home AVERAGE (1.15)

Win probability 1X2

Hollenbach (H) 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

TSV Essingen (A) 57.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hollenbach face TSV Essingen on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hollenbach a 23% chance, the draw 20% and TSV Essingen 57%, so TSV Essingen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hollenbach and 2.3 for TSV Essingen (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hollenbach are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 1.85 for TSV Essingen. This match finished 2-1.

Hollenbach vs TSV Essingen Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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