Today / Plzen W vs L. Brno W

Plzen W vs L. Brno W Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Plzen W

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

L. Brno W

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.2%0-23.9%0-31.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.5%1-19.7%1-27.2%1-33.6%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-19.1%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.8%3-15.6%3-24.2%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-14.0%4+-23.0%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 26.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Plzen W1.9

L. Brno W1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PLZEN W · PPG 1.00

L. BRNO W · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.11)

Win probability 1X2

Plzen W (H) 49.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

L. Brno W (A) 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Plzen W face L. Brno W on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Plzen W a 49% chance, the draw 25% and L. Brno W 26%, so Plzen W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Plzen W and 1.5 for L. Brno W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Plzen W are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.11 for L. Brno W. This match finished 2-1.

Plzen W vs L. Brno W Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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