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Dnepr Mogilev vs Dinamo Brest Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 11:00

Dnepr Mogilev

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Dinamo Brest

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.8%0-121.3%0-212.0%0-34.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.2%1-111.5%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-02.7%2-13.1%2-21.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-00.5%3-10.6%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.4% 22.2% 4.50 -18.4%

Draw 36.6% 31.3% 3.20 +17.1%

Away win 48.0% 57.1% 1.75 -16.0%

Over 2.5 35.0% 45.7% 2.19 -23.4%

Over 3.5 8.9% 26.0% 3.85 -39.4%

BTTS 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -16.9%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob46.2%

A 48% / xG 0.5-1.1 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.8%

#2 0–1 21.3%

#3 1–1✓ 11.5%

#4 0–2 12.0%

#5 1–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dnepr Mogilev0.5

Dinamo Brest1.1

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 8.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DNEPR MOGILEV · PPG 0.67

DINAMO BREST · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Dnepr Mogilev (H) 15.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -18.4%

Draw 36.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +17.1%

Dinamo Brest (A) 48.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dnepr Mogilev face Dinamo Brest in Belarus - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dnepr Mogilev a 15% chance, the draw 37% and Dinamo Brest 48%, so Dinamo Brest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Dnepr Mogilev and 1.1 for Dinamo Brest (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dnepr Mogilev are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.75 for Dinamo Brest. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Dnepr Mogilev vs Dinamo Brest Prediction— Belarus - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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