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Rukh Lviv vs Oleksandria Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 29 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 10:00

Rukh Lviv

PPG 0.79 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Oleksandria

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 50% chance

Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-110.7%0-25.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.4%1-113.2%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.1%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 46.5% 2.15 -4.1%

Draw 29.1% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Away win 26.3% 30.3% 3.30 -7.9%

Over 2.5 46.2% 40.8% 2.45 +13.2%

Over 3.5 18.5% 21.1% 4.75 -7.3%

BTTS 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.4%

H 45% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rukh Lviv1.2

Oleksandria1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RUKH LVIV · PPG 0.79

OLEKSANDRIA · PPG 0.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

50%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.79) > Away POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

Rukh Lviv (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -4.1%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.6%

Oleksandria (A) 26.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rukh Lviv face Oleksandria in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rukh Lviv a 45% chance, the draw 29% and Oleksandria 26%, so Rukh Lviv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Rukh Lviv and 1.0 for Oleksandria (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rukh Lviv are averaging 0.79 points per game versus 0.43 for Oleksandria. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 1-3.

Rukh Lviv vs Oleksandria Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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