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Altona vs BW Lohne Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:30

Altona

PPG 0.86 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

BW Lohne

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.6% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.3%0-25.1%0-33.3%0-4+2.4%1 1-04.6%1-18.8%1-28.5%1-35.5%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.8%2-17.4%2-27.1%2-34.6%2-4+3.4%3 3-02.1%3-14.1%3-23.9%3-32.5%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.5%4+-22.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.9% 38.2% 2.62 -11.2%

Draw 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -16.1%

Away win 44.3% 45.5% 2.20 -2.5%

Over 2.5 69.6% 72.5% 1.38 -4.0%

Over 3.5 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

BTTS 69.3% 75.2% 1.33 -7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob69.3%

A 44% / xG 1.7-1.9 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altona1.7

BW Lohne1.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.6% · O3.5 PROB 48.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTONA · PPG 0.86

BW LOHNE · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.86), Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Altona (H) 33.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -11.2%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -16.1%

BW Lohne (A) 44.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altona face BW Lohne in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altona a 34% chance, the draw 22% and BW Lohne 44%, so BW Lohne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Altona and 1.9 for BW Lohne (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altona are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.64 for BW Lohne. This match finished 3-2.

Altona vs BW Lohne Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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