Today / Lee Man vs Tai Po

Lee Man vs Tai Po Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Lee Man
PPG 1.80 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
Tai Po
PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.7%0-22.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-04.5%1-16.7%1-25.1%1-32.5%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.7%2-18.5%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.8%3-17.2%3-25.4%3-32.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-18.3%4+-26.3%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.7%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 52.4%
Draw 22.9%
Away win 24.7%
Over 2.5 63.9%
Over 3.5 57.4%
BTTS 63.0%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.0%

H 52% / xG 2.5-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%
#2 1–1 6.7%
#3 3–1 7.2%
#4 2–2 6.4%
#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lee Man2.5
Tai Po1.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 57.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LEE MAN · PPG 1.80

TAI PO · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Lee Man (H) 52.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 22.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Tai Po (A) 24.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lee Man face Tai Po on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lee Man a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Tai Po 25%, so Lee Man are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Lee Man and 1.5 for Tai Po (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lee Man are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.50 for Tai Po.

PredictVantage

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