Today / V. Miyazaki W vs S. Sfida W

V. Miyazaki W vs S. Sfida W Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

V. Miyazaki W
PPG 3.00 · HOME
1 – 2
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
S. Sfida W
PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.6%0-21.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.9%1-14.9%1-23.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.2%2-17.7%2-24.8%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.4%3-18.0%3-25.0%3-32.1%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-011.0%4+-113.7%4+-28.6%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.4%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 61.7%
Draw 20.6%
Away win 17.7%
Over 2.5 69.8%
Over 3.5 63.7%
BTTS 62.1%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-2
xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.1%

H 62% / xG 3.1-1.2 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%
#2 2–1 7.7%
#3 3–0 6.4%
#4 4–1 6.3%
#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

V. Miyazaki W3.1
S. Sfida W1.2

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 63.7%

Form & verdict PPG

V. MIYAZAKI W · PPG 3.00

S. SFIDA W · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=61.7%

Win probability 1X2

V. Miyazaki W (H) 61.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 20.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
S. Sfida W (A) 17.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

V. Miyazaki W face S. Sfida W on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives V. Miyazaki W a 62% chance, the draw 21% and S. Sfida W 18%, so V. Miyazaki W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for V. Miyazaki W and 1.2 for S. Sfida W (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, V. Miyazaki W are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.80 for S. Sfida W. This match finished 1-2.

PredictVantage

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