Today / Hobro vs Aarhus Fremad

Hobro vs Aarhus Fremad Prediction

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Hobro

PPG 0.93 · HOME

2 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aarhus Fremad

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-110.8%0-26.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.5%1-113.0%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.3%2-17.8%2-24.8%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.5%3-13.1%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% — — —

Draw 27.4% — — —

Away win 36.8% — — —

Over 2.5 47.6% — — —

Over 3.5 23.0% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 16%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-6

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 0–1 10.8%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hobro1.2

Aarhus Fremad1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HOBRO · PPG 0.93

AARHUS FREMAD · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Hobro (H) 35.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aarhus Fremad (A) 36.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hobro face Aarhus Fremad on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hobro a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Aarhus Fremad 37%, so Aarhus Fremad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Hobro and 1.2 for Aarhus Fremad (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hobro are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.00 for Aarhus Fremad. This match finished 2-6.

Hobro vs Aarhus Fremad Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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