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Deportivo Merlo vs D. Armenio Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 22:00

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.57 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

D. Armenio

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-110.1%0-23.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-112.7%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.6%2-18.0%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.3%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.5% 44.4% 2.25 +6.9%

Draw 28.4% 35.1% 2.85 -11.4%

Away win 24.1% 30.8% 3.25 -13.0%

Over 2.5 42.6% 33.9% 2.95 +25.7%

Over 3.5 14.5% 15.4% 6.50 -3.5%

BTTS 48.6% 43.5% 2.30 +11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.4%

#2 1–0 16.9%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Merlo1.3

D. Armenio0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.6% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.57

D. ARMENIO · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Merlo (H) 47.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +6.9%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -11.4%

D. Armenio (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Merlo face D. Armenio in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Merlo a 48% chance, the draw 28% and D. Armenio 24%, so Deportivo Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportivo Merlo and 0.8 for D. Armenio (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Merlo are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.88 for D. Armenio. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.7%. This match finished 3-2.

Deportivo Merlo vs D. Armenio Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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