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U. Catolica vs Delfin Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 21:30

U. Catolica

PPG 2.29 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Delfin

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.9%0-16.1%0-21.0%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-024.7%1-18.4%1-21.4%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.0%2-15.8%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.8%3-12.7%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-11.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 71.9% 1.39 -21.5%

Draw 29.3% 24.4% 4.10 +12.1%

Away win 14.1% 10.6% 9.40 +19.5%

Over 2.5 35.0% 47.6% 2.10 -26.5%

Over 3.5 9.6% 26.3% 3.80 -38.1%

BTTS 41.0% 42.6% 2.35 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.3 BTTS prob41.0%

H 56% / xG 1.4-0.3 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 24.7%

#2 0–0 17.9%

#3 2–0 17.0%

#4 1–1 8.4%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. Catolica1.4

Delfin0.3

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.6%

Form & verdict PPG

U. CATOLICA · PPG 2.29

DELFIN · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs P(Home)=56.5%

Win probability 1X2

U. Catolica (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.39 · IMPLIED 71.9% EV -21.5%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +12.1%

Delfin (A) 14.1%

ODDS 9.40 · IMPLIED 10.6% EV +19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. Catolica face Delfin in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. Catolica a 56% chance, the draw 29% and Delfin 14%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for U. Catolica and 0.3 for Delfin (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. Catolica are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.33 for Delfin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 2-2.

U. Catolica vs Delfin Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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