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Macara vs I. del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:00

Macara

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

I. del Valle

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-113.8%0-27.8%0-33.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.8%1-113.4%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.8%2-16.5%2-23.7%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.1%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.2% 34.2% 2.92 -3.1%

Draw 29.5% 30.8% 3.25 -2.5%

Away win 37.3% 42.0% 2.38 -11.2%

Over 2.5 46.2% 45.5% 2.20 +1.6%

Over 3.5 16.3% 23.8% 4.20 -18.9%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 0–1 13.8%

#4 1–0 11.8%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macara1.0

I. del Valle1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MACARA · PPG 1.57

I. DEL VALLE · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Macara (H) 33.2%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -3.1%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.5%

I. del Valle (A) 37.3%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macara face I. del Valle in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macara a 33% chance, the draw 30% and I. del Valle 37%, so I. del Valle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Macara and 1.1 for I. del Valle (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macara are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 2.50 for I. del Valle. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 0-3.

Macara vs I. del Valle Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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