Today / Colegiales vs CA Guemes

Colegiales vs CA Guemes Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Colegiales

PPG 2.20 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

CA Guemes

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.4%0-113.7%0-25.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.7%1-113.2%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.0%2-16.3%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.6%3-12.0%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.6%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% — — —

Draw 35.2% — — —

Away win 26.7% — — —

Over 2.5 35.0% — — —

Over 3.5 10.1% — — —

BTTS 46.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.2%

H 38% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.4%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.7%

#4 0–1 13.7%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colegiales1.0

CA Guemes0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.1%

Form & verdict PPG

COLEGIALES · PPG 2.20

CA GUEMES · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=38.1%

Win probability 1X2

Colegiales (H) 38.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 35.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

CA Guemes (A) 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Colegiales face CA Guemes on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colegiales a 38% chance, the draw 35% and CA Guemes 27%, so Colegiales are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Colegiales and 0.8 for CA Guemes (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colegiales are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.00 for CA Guemes. This match finished 4-1.

Colegiales vs CA Guemes Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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