Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Port Melbourne vs M. Victory B

Port Melbourne vs M. Victory B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 04:00

Port Melbourne

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

M. Victory B

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-18.0%0-28.9%0-36.5%0-4+6.1%1 1-04.0%1-18.9%1-29.8%1-37.2%1-4+6.7%2 2-02.2%2-14.9%2-25.4%2-34.0%2-4+3.7%3 3-00.8%3-11.8%3-22.0%3-31.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.8% — — —

Draw 23.1% — — —

Away win 58.1% — — —

Over 2.5 60.1% — — —

Over 3.5 42.3% — — —

BTTS 58.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob58.6%

A 58% / xG 1.1-2.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.9%

#4 1–3✓ 7.2%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Port Melbourne1.1

M. Victory B2.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PORT MELBOURNE · PPG 1.17

M. VICTORY B · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.17) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Port Melbourne (H) 18.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

M. Victory B (A) 58.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Port Melbourne face M. Victory B in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Port Melbourne a 19% chance, the draw 23% and M. Victory B 58%, so M. Victory B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Port Melbourne and 2.2 for M. Victory B (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Port Melbourne are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.50 for M. Victory B. This match finished 1-3.

Port Melbourne vs M. Victory B Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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