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Omiya Ardija W vs Nojima Stella W Prediction— Japan - WE League

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 04:00

Omiya Ardija W

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Nojima Stella W

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-19.3%0-24.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.4%1-112.8%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-18.8%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.2%3-14.0%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% — — —

Draw 28.9% — — —

Away win 25.0% — — —

Over 2.5 46.9% — — —

Over 3.5 20.7% — — —

BTTS 52.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.1%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Omiya Ardija W1.4

Nojima Stella W1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OMIYA ARDIJA W · PPG 1.20

NOJIMA STELLA W · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Omiya Ardija W (H) 46.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nojima Stella W (A) 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Omiya Ardija W face Nojima Stella W in Japan - WE League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Omiya Ardija W a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Nojima Stella W 25%, so Omiya Ardija W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Omiya Ardija W and 1.0 for Nojima Stella W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Omiya Ardija W are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.40 for Nojima Stella W. This match finished 0-4.

Omiya Ardija W vs Nojima Stella W Prediction— Japan - WE League

Match Preview & Prediction

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