← Back to picks 
Australia - Victoria NPL Saturday, May 16, 2026 04:00 
Hume City PPG 2.00 
Avondale PPG 1.20
Australia - Victoria NPL Saturday, May 16, 2026 04:00 Hume City PPG 2.003-0 MISS
Avondale PPG 1.20Over3.5· +3.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 62.9% Odds: 1.53 -3.8%
Over 3.5 44.0% Odds: 2.35 +3.4%
BTTS 59.9% Odds: 1.44 -13.7%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-1 ✘
3rd 1-2 ✘
4th 2-2 ✘
5th 2-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Hume City 1.71
Avondale 1.69
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -3.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -3.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Over3.5 (+3.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Over3.5 (+3.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 43 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 56%
O2.5/Under 51%
BTTS/No 37%
Score Hit 44%
ROI 5.0%
Bet Hit 58% (19 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
MODERATE_HOME 52%
Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)