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Cerezo Osaka W vs P. Nagano W Prediction— Japan - WE League

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 04:00

Cerezo Osaka W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

P. Nagano W

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-14.7%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.4%1-19.6%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-16.7%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-15.5%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% — — —

Draw 25.5% — — —

Away win 22.0% — — —

Over 2.5 59.4% — — —

Over 3.5 32.7% — — —

BTTS 52.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 35%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.1%

H 52% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.7%

#2 1–1✓ 9.6%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerezo Osaka W2.0

P. Nagano W0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CEREZO OSAKA W · PPG 1.50

P. NAGANO W · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=52.5%

Win probability 1X2

Cerezo Osaka W (H) 52.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

P. Nagano W (A) 22.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerezo Osaka W face P. Nagano W in Japan - WE League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerezo Osaka W a 53% chance, the draw 26% and P. Nagano W 22%, so Cerezo Osaka W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Cerezo Osaka W and 0.8 for P. Nagano W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerezo Osaka W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.50 for P. Nagano W. This match finished 1-1.

Cerezo Osaka W vs P. Nagano W Prediction— Japan - WE League

Match Preview & Prediction

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