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UNSW vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 05:00

UNSW

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Rockdale

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.8%0-24.9%0-32.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-05.9%1-19.8%1-28.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-26.9%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.8%3-14.6%3-23.9%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.8%4+-22.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 29.4% 3.40 +29.9%

Draw 25.9% 26.0% 3.85 -0.2%

Away win 35.9% 54.6% 1.83 -34.3%

Over 2.5 60.8% 69.0% 1.45 -11.8%

Over 3.5 43.2% 46.5% 2.15 -7.1%

BTTS 59.5% 70.4% 1.42 -15.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.5%

H 38% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–0 3.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNSW1.7

Rockdale1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UNSW · PPG 1.67

ROCKDALE · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

UNSW (H) 38.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +29.9%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -0.2%

Rockdale (A) 35.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -34.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNSW face Rockdale in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNSW a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Rockdale 36%, so UNSW are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for UNSW and 1.7 for Rockdale (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNSW are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.67 for Rockdale. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.9%. This match finished 2-0.

UNSW vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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