Today / Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana / UAI Urquiza vs Villa Dalmine

UAI Urquiza vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:30

UAI Urquiza

PPG 0.86 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Villa Dalmine

PPG 2.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-029.0%0-125.9%0-211.6%0-33.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.0%1-18.9%1-24.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-01.7%2-11.5%2-20.7%2-30.2%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.2%3-10.2%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.3% 30.3% 3.30 -31.7%

Draw 42.5% 35.7% 2.80 +19.0%

Away win 43.2% 43.5% 2.30 -0.6%

Over 2.5 25.6% 31.3% 3.20 -10.8%

Over 3.5 3.7% 16.7% 6.00 -46.7%

BTTS 29.3% 40.8% 2.45 -16.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob29.3%

A 43% / xG 0.3-0.9 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 29.0%

#2 0–1 25.9%

#3 0–2 11.6%

#4 1–1 8.9%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UAI Urquiza0.3

Villa Dalmine0.9

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.6% · O3.5 PROB 3.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UAI URQUIZA · PPG 0.86

VILLA DALMINE · PPG 2.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.71) vs Home POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

UAI Urquiza (H) 14.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -31.7%

Draw 42.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +19.0%

Villa Dalmine (A) 43.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

UAI Urquiza face Villa Dalmine in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UAI Urquiza a 14% chance, the draw 43% and Villa Dalmine 43%, so Villa Dalmine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.3 for UAI Urquiza and 0.9 for Villa Dalmine (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UAI Urquiza are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 2.71 for Villa Dalmine. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 0-0.

UAI Urquiza vs Villa Dalmine Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana Predictions