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SM Burzaco vs Talleres R. E. Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:30

SM Burzaco

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Talleres R. E.

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-030.3%0-119.0%0-26.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.2%1-110.8%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-04.9%2-13.1%2-21.0%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-00.9%3-10.6%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 38.2% 2.62 -14.6%

Draw 43.9% 35.7% 2.80 +22.9%

Away win 27.2% 35.7% 2.80 -14.3%

Over 2.5 23.8% 33.9% 2.95 -17.9%

Over 3.5 3.3% 15.4% 6.50 -47.1%

BTTS 35.9% 44.4% 2.25 -19.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob35.9%

D 44% / xG 0.6-0.6 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 30.3%

#2 0–1 19.0%

#3 1–0 17.2%

#4 1–1 10.8%

#5 0–2✓ 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SM Burzaco0.6

Talleres R. E.0.6

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.8% · O3.5 PROB 3.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SM BURZACO · PPG 1.00

TALLERES R. E. · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.71) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

SM Burzaco (H) 28.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.6%

Draw 43.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +22.9%

Talleres R. E. (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

SM Burzaco face Talleres R. E. in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SM Burzaco a 29% chance, the draw 44% and Talleres R. E. 27%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for SM Burzaco and 0.6 for Talleres R. E. (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SM Burzaco are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.71 for Talleres R. E.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 0-2.

SM Burzaco vs Talleres R. E. Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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