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Real Pilar vs Excursionistas Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:30

Real Pilar

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Excursionistas

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.1%0-116.2%0-27.7%0-32.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-014.0%1-113.3%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-05.7%2-15.4%2-22.6%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.6%3-11.5%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 45.5% 2.20 -30.9%

Draw 32.8% 34.7% 2.88 -5.5%

Away win 35.8% 29.4% 3.40 +21.7%

Over 2.5 35.0% 35.1% 2.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 10.3% 20.0% 5.00 -29.1%

BTTS 46.6% 44.4% 2.25 +4.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.6%

D 33% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.1%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1✓ 16.2%

#4 1–0 14.0%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Pilar0.8

Excursionistas0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.3%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL PILAR · PPG 1.43

EXCURSIONISTAS · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

47%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

Real Pilar (H) 31.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -30.9%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -5.5%

Excursionistas (A) 35.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Pilar face Excursionistas in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Pilar a 31% chance, the draw 33% and Excursionistas 36%, so Excursionistas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Real Pilar and 0.9 for Excursionistas (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Pilar are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.57 for Excursionistas. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Real Pilar vs Excursionistas Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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