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Liniers vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:30

Liniers

PPG 1.14 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Arsenal Sarandi

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.5%0-124.7%0-213.0%0-34.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.3%1-19.8%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-01.9%2-12.0%2-21.0%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.2%3-10.3%3-20.1%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.4% 27.0% 3.70 -25.8%

Draw 36.6% 35.1% 2.85 +4.3%

Away win 48.1% 47.6% 2.10 +1.0%

Over 2.5 25.8% 33.9% 2.95 -14.3%

Over 3.5 5.9% 18.2% 5.50 -40.5%

BTTS 41.1% 43.5% 2.30 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob41.1%

A 48% / xG 0.4-1.1 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 23.5%

#2 0–1 24.7%

#3 0–2 13.0%

#4 1–1 9.8%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liniers0.4

Arsenal Sarandi1.1

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LINIERS · PPG 1.14

ARSENAL SARANDI · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs Home AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Liniers (H) 15.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -25.8%

Draw 36.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +4.3%

Arsenal Sarandi (A) 48.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liniers face Arsenal Sarandi in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liniers a 15% chance, the draw 37% and Arsenal Sarandi 48%, so Arsenal Sarandi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Liniers and 1.1 for Arsenal Sarandi (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liniers are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 2.14 for Arsenal Sarandi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Liniers vs Arsenal Sarandi Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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