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Defensores U. vs Ituzaingo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:30

Defensores U.

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ituzaingo

PPG 0.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.7%0-17.6%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.6%1-110.9%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-17.8%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.7%3-13.7%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-11.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 58.8% 1.70 -11.6%

Draw 27.2% 31.3% 3.20 -7.8%

Away win 20.8% 20.0% 5.00 +2.4%

Over 2.5 36.6% 40.8% 2.45 -10.3%

Over 3.5 14.0% 22.2% 4.50 -22.2%

BTTS 46.2% 45.5% 2.20 +1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob46.2%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.6%

#2 0–0 13.7%

#3 2–0 14.0%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 2–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensores U.1.4

Ituzaingo0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.6% · O3.5 PROB 14.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSORES U. · PPG 1.43

ITUZAINGO · PPG 0.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.43) vs P(Home)=52.0%

Win probability 1X2

Defensores U. (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -11.6%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.8%

Ituzaingo (A) 20.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensores U. face Ituzaingo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensores U. a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Ituzaingo 21%, so Defensores U. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Defensores U. and 0.6 for Ituzaingo (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensores U. are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.14 for Ituzaingo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Defensores U. vs Ituzaingo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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