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Napredak vs Radnicki 1923 Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group - 36 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:00

Napredak

PPG 0.59 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Radnicki 1923

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-113.2%0-210.0%0-35.0%0-4+2.6%1 1-08.1%1-112.2%1-29.2%1-34.6%1-4+2.4%2 2-03.8%2-15.7%2-24.3%2-32.1%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.2%3-11.7%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.8% 12.0% 8.30 +68.5%

Draw 28.0% 22.7% 4.40 +13.9%

Away win 46.2% 74.6% 1.34 -38.1%

Over 2.5 47.6% 57.8% 1.73 -17.6%

Over 3.5 22.8% 36.4% 2.75 -22.4%

BTTS 51.6% 51.8% 1.93 -0.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.6%

A 46% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 13.2%

#3 0–0✓ 8.8%

#4 0–2 10.0%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Napredak0.9

Radnicki 19231.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NAPREDAK · PPG 0.59

RADNICKI 1923 · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.59) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Napredak (H) 25.8%

ODDS 8.30 · IMPLIED 12.0% EV +68.5%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +13.9%

Radnicki 1923 (A) 46.2%

ODDS 1.34 · IMPLIED 74.6% EV -38.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Napredak face Radnicki 1923 in Serbia - Super Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Napredak a 26% chance, the draw 28% and Radnicki 1923 46%, so Radnicki 1923 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Napredak and 1.5 for Radnicki 1923 (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Napredak are averaging 0.59 points per game versus 1.00 for Radnicki 1923. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +68.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Napredak vs Radnicki 1923 Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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