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Sutjeska vs Decic Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:00

Sutjeska

PPG 2.38 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Decic

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-17.5%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.2%1-111.8%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-19.3%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.9%3-14.9%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 66.7% 1.50 -21.4%

Draw 25.8% 29.4% 3.40 -7.4%

Away win 21.8% 16.7% 6.00 +18.5%

Over 2.5 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Over 3.5 22.2% 29.2% 3.42 -14.4%

BTTS 50.4% 50.0% 2.00 +0.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.4%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutjeska1.6

Decic0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTJESKA · PPG 2.38

DECIC · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Sutjeska (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -21.4%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.4%

Decic (A) 21.8%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutjeska face Decic in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutjeska a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Decic 22%, so Sutjeska are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sutjeska and 0.8 for Decic (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutjeska are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.25 for Decic. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Sutjeska vs Decic Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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