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Petrovac vs Jedinstvo Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:00

Petrovac

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Jedinstvo

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWW

// Model verdict

Home 59% chance

Model probability 51.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-17.7%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.4%1-111.4%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-18.5%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.4%3-14.2%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 61.7% 1.62 -16.1%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Away win 21.6% 21.1% 4.75 +1.6%

Over 2.5 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Over 3.5 17.1% 27.2% 3.68 -22.2%

BTTS 48.6% 50.3% 1.99 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -58.2%

Bet Hit 21%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 17.4%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 1–1 11.4%

#4 2–0 13.0%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Petrovac1.5

Jedinstvo0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PETROVAC · PPG 1.69

JEDINSTVO · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=51.8%

Win probability 1X2

Petrovac (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -16.1%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

Jedinstvo (A) 21.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Petrovac face Jedinstvo in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Petrovac a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Jedinstvo 22%, so Petrovac are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Petrovac and 0.7 for Jedinstvo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Petrovac are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.75 for Jedinstvo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Petrovac vs Jedinstvo Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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