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Jezero vs Mladost DG Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:00

Jezero

PPG 1.44 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Mladost DG

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-19.4%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.4%1-112.8%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.4%2-18.7%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-14.0%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 40.8% 2.45 +12.2%

Draw 28.0% 37.0% 2.70 -14.6%

Away win 26.1% 34.7% 2.88 -14.9%

Over 2.5 47.6% 40.0% 2.50 +19.0%

Over 3.5 22.1% 21.5% 4.65 +1.7%

BTTS 51.6% 48.8% 2.05 +5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jezero1.4

Mladost DG1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.1%

Form & verdict PPG

JEZERO · PPG 1.44

MLADOST DG · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Jezero (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +12.2%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.6%

Mladost DG (A) 26.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jezero face Mladost DG in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jezero a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Mladost DG 26%, so Jezero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Jezero and 1.0 for Mladost DG (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jezero are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.94 for Mladost DG. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Jezero vs Mladost DG Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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