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Buducnost vs Mornar Bar Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 18:00

Buducnost

PPG 1.56 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Mornar Bar

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-115.8%0-27.7%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.7%1-113.4%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-05.8%2-15.7%2-22.8%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.6%3-11.6%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

Draw 32.7% 38.2% 2.62 -14.3%

Away win 35.7% 37.0% 2.70 -3.6%

Over 2.5 35.0% 40.0% 2.50 -12.5%

Over 3.5 11.3% 21.5% 4.65 -28.5%

BTTS 48.6% 48.8% 2.05 -0.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.6%

D 33% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 16.1%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.8%

#4 1–0 13.7%

#5 0–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buducnost0.8

Mornar Bar1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BUDUCNOST · PPG 1.56

MORNAR BAR · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Buducnost (H) 31.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -17.2%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.3%

Mornar Bar (A) 35.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Buducnost face Mornar Bar in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buducnost a 32% chance, the draw 33% and Mornar Bar 36%, so Mornar Bar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Buducnost and 1.0 for Mornar Bar (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buducnost are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.63 for Mornar Bar. This match finished 0-0.

Buducnost vs Mornar Bar Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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