Today / Racing vs Valladolid

Racing vs Valladolid Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Racing

PPG 2.16 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Valladolid

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.7%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.8%1-19.6%1-25.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.2%3-16.8%3-23.7%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-15.6%4+-23.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 22.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing2.1

Valladolid1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING · PPG 2.16

VALLADOLID · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.16) vs P(Home)=53.1%

Win probability 1X2

Racing (H) 53.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Valladolid (A) 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing face Valladolid on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Valladolid 22%, so Racing are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Racing and 1.1 for Valladolid (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 0.89 for Valladolid. This match finished 4-1.

Racing vs Valladolid Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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