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VfB Lubeck vs Weiche F. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:00

VfB Lubeck

PPG 1.63 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Weiche F.

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.4%0-23.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.8%1 1-03.5%1-17.0%1-27.1%1-34.7%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.6%2-17.3%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.5%3-15.0%3-25.1%3-33.4%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-14.2%4+-24.2%4+-32.8%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 46.5% 2.15 -9.5%

Draw 22.6% 26.0% 3.85 -7.8%

Away win 35.2% 37.7% 2.65 -6.7%

Over 2.5 63.9% 71.4% 1.40 -10.5%

Over 3.5 58.4% 48.8% 2.05 +19.7%

BTTS 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.0%

H 42% / xG 2.1-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.0%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.1%

#5 3–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VfB Lubeck2.1

Weiche F.2.0

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 58.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VFB LUBECK · PPG 1.63

WEICHE F. · PPG 1.31

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

VfB Lubeck (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -9.5%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -7.8%

Weiche F. (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

VfB Lubeck face Weiche F. in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VfB Lubeck a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Weiche F. 35%, so VfB Lubeck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for VfB Lubeck and 2.0 for Weiche F. (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VfB Lubeck are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.31 for Weiche F.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.7%. This match finished 0-1.

VfB Lubeck vs Weiche F. Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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