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Schoningen vs Phonix Lubeck Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:00

Schoningen

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Phonix Lubeck

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-16.5%0-26.6%0-34.5%0-4+3.7%1 1-04.4%1-19.1%1-29.3%1-36.4%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.1%2-16.4%2-26.6%2-34.5%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.5%3-13.0%3-23.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.4%4+-21.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 36.4% 2.75 -12.8%

Draw 25.1% 26.3% 3.80 -2.8%

Away win 46.3% 47.6% 2.10 -2.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 72.5% 1.38 -11.8%

Over 3.5 45.4% 51.3% 1.95 -11.5%

BTTS 59.7% 75.2% 1.33 -20.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-5

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–2 6.6%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Schoningen1.4

Phonix Lubeck2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SCHONINGEN · PPG 1.00

PHONIX LUBECK · PPG 1.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Schoningen (H) 28.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.8%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.8%

Phonix Lubeck (A) 46.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Schoningen face Phonix Lubeck in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Schoningen a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Phonix Lubeck 46%, so Phonix Lubeck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Schoningen and 2.1 for Phonix Lubeck (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Schoningen are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.31 for Phonix Lubeck. This match finished 3-5.

Schoningen vs Phonix Lubeck Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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