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Oldenburg vs Werder Bremen B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:00

Oldenburg

PPG 1.88 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Werder Bremen B

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.9% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-11.1%0-20.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-02.7%1-13.9%1-22.7%1-31.3%1-4+0.6%2 2-04.6%2-16.6%2-24.7%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.3%3-17.5%3-25.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-010.7%4+-115.3%4+-210.8%4+-35.1%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.7% 76.9% 1.30 -19.8%

Draw 20.5% 20.0% 5.00 +1.5%

Away win 17.7% 13.8% 7.25 +17.0%

Over 2.5 78.9% 80.0% 1.25 -1.4%

Over 3.5 71.1% 59.9% 1.67 +18.7%

BTTS 63.0% 70.4% 1.42 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.0%

H 62% / xG 3.4-1.4 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1✓ 7.5%

#2 2–1 6.6%

#3 4–1 6.4%

#4 3–2 5.3%

#5 3–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oldenburg3.4

Werder Bremen B1.4

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.9% · O3.5 PROB 71.1%

Form & verdict PPG

OLDENBURG · PPG 1.88

WERDER BREMEN B · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=61.7%

Win probability 1X2

Oldenburg (H) 61.7%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -19.8%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +1.5%

Werder Bremen B (A) 17.7%

ODDS 7.25 · IMPLIED 13.8% EV +17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oldenburg face Werder Bremen B in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oldenburg a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Werder Bremen B 18%, so Oldenburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for Oldenburg and 1.4 for Werder Bremen B (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oldenburg are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.88 for Werder Bremen B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 3-1.

Oldenburg vs Werder Bremen B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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