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Norderstedt vs HSC Hannover Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:00

Norderstedt

PPG 1.06 · HOME

3 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

HSC Hannover

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.0%0-22.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-04.1%1-17.0%1-26.0%1-33.5%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.7%2-18.1%2-27.0%2-34.0%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.7%3-16.3%3-25.4%3-33.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-16.3%4+-25.5%4+-33.1%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.8% 54.6% 1.83 -5.2%

Draw 22.6% 24.4% 4.10 -4.4%

Away win 25.6% 30.8% 3.25 -10.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 76.9% 1.30 -16.9%

Over 3.5 57.6% 55.6% 1.80 +3.7%

BTTS 63.0% 76.9% 1.30 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-6

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.0%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.1%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.3%

#5 1–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norderstedt2.3

HSC Hannover1.7

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 57.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NORDERSTEDT · PPG 1.06

HSC HANNOVER · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Norderstedt (H) 51.8%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -5.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.4%

HSC Hannover (A) 25.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norderstedt face HSC Hannover in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norderstedt a 52% chance, the draw 23% and HSC Hannover 26%, so Norderstedt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Norderstedt and 1.7 for HSC Hannover (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norderstedt are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.94 for HSC Hannover. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 3-6.

Norderstedt vs HSC Hannover Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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