Today / Altay vs Afyonspor

Altay vs Afyonspor Prediction

Group 4 - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Altay

PPG 1.21 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Afyonspor

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.21) > Away POOR (0.64)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.4%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.6%1-111.9%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.5%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.4%3-15.1%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 46.8% — — —

Over 3.5 25.2% — — —

BTTS 48.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.8%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.6%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 2–0✓ 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altay1.6

Afyonspor0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTAY · PPG 1.21

AFYONSPOR · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.21) > Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Altay (H) 52.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Afyonspor (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Altay face Afyonspor on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altay a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Afyonspor 22%, so Altay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Altay and 0.9 for Afyonspor (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altay are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.64 for Afyonspor. This match finished 2-0.

Altay vs Afyonspor Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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