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Meppen vs St. Pauli B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:00

Meppen

PPG 2.38 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

St. Pauli B

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-10.8%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.8%1-13.1%1-21.3%1-30.3%1-4+0.1%2 2-07.1%2-15.8%2-22.4%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.0%3-17.4%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-023.2%4+-119.0%4+-27.8%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.4% 88.5% 1.13 -19.3%

Draw 20.4% 14.8% 6.75 +22.6%

Away win 8.2% 7.1% 14.00 +8.9%

Over 2.5 73.0% 80.0% 1.25 -8.8%

Over 3.5 67.7% 60.6% 1.65 +11.7%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 71% / xG 3.8-0.8 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.0%

#2 4–0 8.6%

#3 3–1 7.4%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 4–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meppen3.8

St. Pauli B0.8

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 67.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MEPPEN · PPG 2.38

ST. PAULI B · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Meppen (H) 71.4%

ODDS 1.13 · IMPLIED 88.5% EV -19.3%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +22.6%

St. Pauli B (A) 8.2%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Meppen face St. Pauli B in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meppen a 71% chance, the draw 20% and St. Pauli B 8%, so Meppen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Meppen and 0.8 for St. Pauli B (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meppen are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.75 for St. Pauli B. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +22.6%. This match finished 4-2.

Meppen vs St. Pauli B Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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