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Hamburger SV B vs BW Lohne Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:00

Hamburger SV B

PPG 1.31 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

BW Lohne

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.0%0-21.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.6%1-17.6%1-24.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.2%2-19.4%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.8%3-17.8%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-18.7%4+-25.0%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% 69.4% 1.44 -18.4%

Draw 22.1% 21.7% 4.60 +1.0%

Away win 21.1% 18.5% 5.40 +8.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Over 3.5 49.1% 51.3% 1.95 -4.3%

BTTS 59.7% 67.6% 1.48 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 57% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamburger SV B2.5

BW Lohne1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMBURGER SV B · PPG 1.31

BW LOHNE · PPG 0.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.31) > Away POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Hamburger SV B (H) 56.7%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -18.4%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +1.0%

BW Lohne (A) 21.1%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamburger SV B face BW Lohne in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamburger SV B a 57% chance, the draw 22% and BW Lohne 21%, so Hamburger SV B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Hamburger SV B and 1.1 for BW Lohne (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamburger SV B are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 0.56 for BW Lohne. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 5-1.

Hamburger SV B vs BW Lohne Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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