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Altona vs Kickers Emden Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

North - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 16:00

Altona

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kickers Emden

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-14.0%0-25.3%0-34.7%0-4+5.8%1 1-02.4%1-16.3%1-28.2%1-37.2%1-4+8.9%2 2-01.8%2-14.8%2-26.4%2-35.6%2-4+6.9%3 3-00.9%3-12.5%3-23.3%3-32.9%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.4%4+-21.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.0% 23.1% 4.33 -2.8%

Draw 21.3% 23.1% 4.33 -4.7%

Away win 56.7% 63.7% 1.57 -11.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 74.1% 1.35 -13.7%

Over 3.5 60.0% 54.1% 1.85 +11.0%

BTTS 63.0% 72.5% 1.38 -13.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 77%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob63.0%

A 57% / xG 1.5-2.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.2%

#2 1–3✓ 7.2%

#3 1–1 6.3%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Altona1.5

Kickers Emden2.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 60.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALTONA · PPG 1.00

KICKERS EMDEN · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Altona (H) 22.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.8%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -4.7%

Kickers Emden (A) 56.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Altona face Kickers Emden in Germany - Regionalliga - Nord on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Altona a 22% chance, the draw 21% and Kickers Emden 57%, so Kickers Emden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Altona and 2.6 for Kickers Emden (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Altona are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Kickers Emden. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.0%. This match finished 1-3.

Altona vs Kickers Emden Prediction— Germany - Regionalliga - Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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