Today / Oulu vs TPS

Oulu vs TPS Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Oulu

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

TPS

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-19.7%0-24.1%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.0%1-112.8%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-18.5%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.4%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.7%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% — — —

Draw 27.5% — — —

Away win 24.4% — — —

Over 2.5 46.2% — — —

Over 3.5 17.5% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0✓ 15.0%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oulu1.3

TPS0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.5%

Form & verdict PPG

OULU · PPG 3.00

TPS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=48.1%

Win probability 1X2

Oulu (H) 48.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

TPS (A) 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Oulu face TPS on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oulu a 48% chance, the draw 28% and TPS 24%, so Oulu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Oulu and 0.9 for TPS (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oulu are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for TPS. This match finished 1-0.

Oulu vs TPS Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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