Today / Szent Mihaly W vs MTK Hungaria W

Szent Mihaly W vs MTK Hungaria W Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Szent Mihaly W
PPG 1.90 · HOME
0 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
MTK Hungaria W
PPG 2.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-17.2%0-28.5%0-36.7%0-4+6.8%1 1-03.5%1-18.2%1-29.6%1-37.5%1-4+7.7%2 2-02.0%2-14.6%2-25.4%2-34.3%2-4+4.4%3 3-00.7%3-11.7%3-22.0%3-31.6%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 14.4%
Draw 23.2%
Away win 62.4%
Over 2.5 63.9%
Over 3.5 46.1%
BTTS 59.7%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 0-0
xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob59.7%

A 62% / xG 1.1-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%
#2 1–1 8.2%
#3 0–2 8.5%
#4 1–3 7.5%
#5 0–3 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Szent Mihaly W1.1
MTK Hungaria W2.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SZENT MIHALY W · PPG 1.90

MTK HUNGARIA W · PPG 2.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value
45%
DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.90) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.30)

Win probability 1X2

Szent Mihaly W (H) 14.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
MTK Hungaria W (A) 62.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Szent Mihaly W face MTK Hungaria W on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Szent Mihaly W a 14% chance, the draw 23% and MTK Hungaria W 62%, so MTK Hungaria W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Szent Mihaly W and 2.4 for MTK Hungaria W (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Szent Mihaly W are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 2.30 for MTK Hungaria W. This match finished 0-0.

PredictVantage

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