Today / TOSK Tesanj vs GOSK Gabela

TOSK Tesanj vs GOSK Gabela Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

TOSK Tesanj

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

GOSK Gabela

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.9%0-113.2%0-25.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.9%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.4%2-16.6%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.8%3-12.2%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% — — —

Draw 34.7% — — —

Away win 25.9% — — —

Over 2.5 35.0% — — —

Over 3.5 10.5% — — —

BTTS 46.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.4%

H 39% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.9%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.9%

#4 0–1 13.2%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TOSK Tesanj1.0

GOSK Gabela0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TOSK TESANJ · PPG 2.00

GOSK GABELA · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=39.4%

Win probability 1X2

TOSK Tesanj (H) 39.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

GOSK Gabela (A) 25.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TOSK Tesanj face GOSK Gabela on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TOSK Tesanj a 39% chance, the draw 35% and GOSK Gabela 26%, so TOSK Tesanj are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for TOSK Tesanj and 0.8 for GOSK Gabela (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TOSK Tesanj are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.18 for GOSK Gabela.

TOSK Tesanj vs GOSK Gabela Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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