Today / Stupcanica vs Sloboda Tuzla

Stupcanica vs Sloboda Tuzla Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Stupcanica

PPG 1.82 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sloboda Tuzla

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.82) vs P(Home)=50.8%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-18.0%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-112.1%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.1%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.6%3-14.6%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% — — —

Draw 25.9% — — —

Away win 23.3% — — —

Over 2.5 46.9% — — —

Over 3.5 21.0% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stupcanica1.5

Sloboda Tuzla0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.0%

Form & verdict PPG

STUPCANICA · PPG 1.82

SLOBODA TUZLA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.82) vs P(Home)=50.8%

Win probability 1X2

Stupcanica (H) 50.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sloboda Tuzla (A) 23.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Stupcanica face Sloboda Tuzla on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stupcanica a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Sloboda Tuzla 23%, so Stupcanica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Stupcanica and 0.8 for Sloboda Tuzla (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stupcanica are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.00 for Sloboda Tuzla. This match finished 0-4.

Stupcanica vs Sloboda Tuzla Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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